Daily Market Wrap — Blog

The gold market has experienced an intense week of technical selling and aggressive macro repricing, with XAU/USD plunging to its lowest level since November. After hitting an all-time high of $5,595.46 in January, gold extended its losing streak into a fourth consecutive week, registering a staggering ~28% correction from its peak and putting the critical, psychologically significant $4,000 handle under severe pressure.

The crude oil market heading into next week (late June/early July 2026) is navigating a sharp transition

Global market wrap for Friday, June 26, 2026, breaking down the major action across Forex, Gold, and Crude Oil.

Here is your market wrap for Thursday, June 25, 2026. The macro narrative continues to be heavily shaped by the ongoing unwinding of the geopolitical war-risk premium following last week’s milestone Swiss signing ceremony (the "Islamabad MOU" between the US and Iran). This stabilization is rapidly shifting money flows, dragging down commodities and keeping the US dollar firm amidst hawkish Fed positioning.

Macro momentum today is heavily driven by progress in the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations alongside a 60-day U.S. sanctions waiver on Iranian crude. This has significantly defused Middle East supply risks and unwound the geopolitical premium across commodities, while a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook keeps the greenback hovering near 13-month highs.

A significant shift in geopolitical headlines and central bank pricing has triggered notable movements across global macro assets today. The abrupt cancellation of fresh peace talks between the United States and Iran has renewed the "fear trade," immediately reversing last week's brief relief rally.

The big story shaping today's action is the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. Marking his first policy meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh delivered a distinctly hawkish tone that shook up global markets, keeping interest rate hike possibilities firmly on the table for 2026 and driving the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a 2-month high near 101.06.

Gold, and Oil following a highly volatile session dominated by a hawkish Federal Reserve.

The dominant narrative across global desks today revolves around a sharp cool-off in energy-driven inflation and heightened anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's critical policy decision. With the macroeconomic landscape shifting due to recent geopolitical de-escalation, major assets are positioning for a busy second half of the week.