With WTI crude jumping back over the $79.50–$80.00 handle on the back of the geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, the technical structure has transformed dramatically from a bearish multi-month slide into a sharp, momentum-fueled bullish reversal.
Here is a technical breakdown of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for today's trading session.
1. The Broad Picture: Bullish Trendline & Candlestick Reversal
WTI’s sharp correction from its early March peak of $119.54 found solid footing on July 2 near the long-term pullback support zone of $67.73.
From there, the market formed a major weekly "Inverted Hammer" reversal pattern (week of July 6).
2. Key Technical Levels to Watch
| Level Type | Price Target | Technical Significance |
| Major Resistance | $93.85 | Medium-term target; major supply zone and prior structural ceiling. |
| Intermediate Resistance | $81.87 / $83.47 | Aligns with the 50-day Moving Average (DMA). A clean daily close above this zone opens the path toward $87 and $93. |
| Immediate Pivot | $79.50 – $80.00 | Psychological ceiling. Price is currently testing this structural breakout zone. |
| Immediate Support | $76.08 – $76.60 | Last week's high and the 200-day Moving Average (200 DMA). This must hold to preserve the immediate bullish breakout momentum. |
| Pivotal Medium-Term Support | $74.29 | Confluence of the rising trendline and minor horizontal pullback levels. |
| Critical Bearish Invalidation | $66.10 | If lost on a daily closing basis, the bullish reversal structure is completely invalidated, reopening paths to $61.50. |
3. Momentum & Indicator Readings
Moving Averages: WTI has successfully reclaimed its 20-day EMA and is actively battling to sustain a breakout above its 200-day Moving Average (located near $76.60).
Reclaiming the 200 DMA shifts the macro bias from bearish/neutral back to overall bullish. Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has broken out out of its oversold structures and successfully retested the 50-midline as support.
This indicates strong, steady buying volume backing the current upward move, rather than just a brief short-covering squeeze.
4. Today’s Trading Playbook
The Bullish Scenario: If WTI establishes a strong daily close above the $80.00 psychological barrier, look for buyers to target the $81.87 to $83.47 zone (the 50 DMA area) next. Traders may look for intraday pullbacks toward the $76.60 (200 DMA) area to build long positions, using a stop-loss just below $74.20.
The Bearish Scenario: If the $80 level rejection holds and today's U.S. CPI print comes in hot (strengthening the USD), WTI may fall back to test its immediate support at $76.08.
A failure to hold the $74.29 trendline level would signal that the "Hormuz premium" is fading, shifting the intraday bias back to bearish.
