Weekly Roundup - 20 July 2026 to 24 Jult 2026

Here is a breakdown of the major currency movements and macro drivers across foreign exchange markets for the week ending July 24, 2026.

1. Key Drivers & Macro Backdrop

• Dollar Resilience & Rate Expectations: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated around the 101.20–101.55 zone. Re-priced expectations around the Federal Reserve’s path—driven by persistent labor market strength (jobless claims falling to 187k) and robust Flash Services PMI (53.6)—reinforced a "higher-for-longer" yield advantage for the Greenback.

• Energy & Geopolitical Volatility: Sharp swings in energy prices heavily impacted broad FX risk sentiment. A mid-week surge in crude oil toward $100/bbl (following Middle East supply concerns) triggered safe-haven USD flows before trimming into Friday's close as traders took profits, offering brief relief to high-beta currencies.

• Central Bank Divergence: While the Fed is expected to stay patient or potentially tilt hawkish, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate steady at 2.25%, taking a wait-and-see approach amid volatile energy costs.

2. Major Currency Pair Breakdown

EUR/USD (Euro / US Dollar)

• Trend: Edged lower, testing support near 1.1325–1.1330 after failing to sustain moves above 1.1400.

• Drivers: Pressure on the Euro stemmed from the ECB's rate pause and softer Eurozone Flash PMIs. Widening interest rate differentials between U.S. Treasuries and European sovereign bonds continue to favor the Dollar.

GBP/USD (British Pound / US Dollar)

• Trend: Pulled back toward 1.3250–1.3310.

• Drivers: Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales and solid Flash Composite PMI (52.1 vs. 49.7 expected) provided underlying support for Sterling, limiting deeper losses compared to the Euro. However, broader USD strength capped Cable's upside.

USD/JPY & Low-Yielders

• Trend: Japanese Yen and lower-yielding G10 currencies lagged overall. EUR/JPY hovered near 185.90–186.60.

• Drivers: The widening rate differential between the Bank of Japan and Western central banks, combined with elevated imported energy costs, kept downside pressure on JPY.

Commodity-Linked Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

• Trend: Mixed-to-firmer heading into the weekend.

• Drivers: Antipodeans (AUD, NZD) caught a bid on Friday following energy-driven profit taking and stabilization in global equity futures. CAD faced offsetting forces: supported by energy prices earlier in the week, but weighed down by weaker domestic PPI metrics (-1.4% MoM in June).

3. Summary Performance Snapshots